If this isn't the year for Penn State and James Franklin, it never will be
Our ongoing series about the biggest stories in College Football for this upcoming season
As part of the lead in to the 2025 College Football Season, High Variance will be focusing on the stories you’re most likely to hear, why they’re taking up space, and what is actually happening underneath the memes.
The SEC thinks that they are the kings of College Football, but they would be wrong. That distinction lies with The Big Ten (B1G) who have won back to back National Titles with their two premier historical programs (Michigan 2023, Ohio State 2024) and has the largest media rights deal ($7billion over the next 7 years) that has NBC, Fox, and CBS fighting in war rooms for their games.
This is not a conference for the feint of heart.1 This is a conference with a school in Ohio State willing to supply one of the largest war chests in the country (over $275 million on football compensation and utilities) and a new member in Oregon who has the backing of an aging billionaire who’s spending every penny he can to see the Ducks win a title before he dies.
So it’s almost no surprise that the Penn State Nittany Lions are almost never the center of attention when talking about the top line of the conference. Since hiring James Franklin in 2014, they’ve won 94 games… But Michigan’s won 102 and Ohio State has won 124. Since 2014, they’ve been to two Rose Bowls and won one, while also racking up two more “Big 4” bowl wins… Ohio State has won two Roses and four additional bowls (with a Natty) and Michigan has a Rose and Natty as well.
But this is par for the course for Penn State; They have won just two titles compared to Ohio State’s nine and Michigan’s twelve. They are clearly thought of and compared with the elites of the B1G, but are the team that is just a notch below, and Franklin’s reputation for losing games against the top of the pyramid is well noted. They are the perennial “one brick shy of a load,” team.
However, in 2025, the stars appear to have finally aligned for the Nittany Lions. After losing their defensive coordinator to Clemson, Franklin went out and got the best coordinator in the game… who was on staff with Ohio State. In the portal, they added second team All-ACC receiver Trebor Peña from Syracuse, first team All-Sunbelt receiver Devonte Ross from Troy, and Kyron Hudson from USC.
Those additions fixed the only glaring holes in the roster because so much production is returning. Almost the entire offense outside of the pass catchers are returning starters from a year ago, and over half of the defense comes back as well. Quarterback Drew Allar, running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, tackle Olaivavega Oiane, defensive tackle Zan Durant, defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton, linebacker Tony Rojas, cornerback AJ Harris, and safety Sakee Wheatley are all considered to be first or second team all B1G players by Phile Steele and others. In a conference with the money of Ohio State and Oregon, Penn State has by far the most proven and productive roster.
The schedule is also about as easy as you can ask for when living in one of the “Big Two” conferences. They have no marquee out of conference game, and get Oregon and Indiana at home. Ohio State will be their toughest game of the season and it will be on the road, but their remaining road contests (UCLA, Iowa, Michigan State, Rutgers) are all incredibly manageable.
When you look at the most successful teams in the post-COVID/NIL era, you don’t see a list of quarterbacks who went number one overall in the NFL Draft. Drew Allar is almost certainly going to get a coach and general manager fired2 in three years after they reach for him in the first round next year, but that’s because he’s the leveled up version of Stetson Bennet/JJ McCarthy/Will Howard. He’s mobile enough, has a strong enough arm, and doesn’t make the bad decisions in the new system installed by former Kansas offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki.
Those successful teams (Georgia/Michigan/Ohio State) did have insane depth across the lines and skill positions and a coaching staff who excelled at pressing advantages each week. Even with Franklin’s history of decision making in past big games, this year’s supporting staff around him is better than ever, and the talent is better than ever.
You’re going to hear A LOT about what happens if Penn State doesn’t make the title game this year; Is James Franklin finally on the hot seat if he can’t get this done with this group of players? I honestly don’t think that’s a fair question. Sure, if he was head coach at Ohio State or Michigan, that would be the expectation. But Penn State is not the top tier of the B1G, as we’ve established. They’re something else, in this tier below that I think the administration is aware works for their school and environment. Would they rather play in a Rose Bowl instead of a generic playoff game? Maybe!
What’s going to be fascinating about this situation is how Penn State plays it all out if Franklin can win the whole thing. Is this a moment they enjoy, cherish, but ultimate admit was the confluence of a lot of good? Or do they attempt to raise the standards of fundraising and NIL payments to the level of Ohio State and Oregon and become one of the top five biggest players in the entire sport.
I’m not sure Franklin is the right guy if they decide to go all in in that way because gestures wildly at everything he’s done before this. But, he’s never had this much talent before, and he’s never had the ability to directly pay players and build rosters in this way. Could Franklin be one of the few holdover coaches to adapt and thrive in this new world? Or are we seeing the peak of what the last of the old guard can deliver?
Penn State’s +700 to win the whole thing. I’m not touching that line… but I’m thinking about it every time I open my book.
Just ask Maryland and Rutgers.
I am almost certain it will be the Pittsburgh Steelers.